When Development Outpaces Planning: how the city’s lagging data drives overdevelopment
In summer of 2025, we became concerned about the rapid development in our community, and yet couldn’t find any reports about how much development is happening. So we did something about it- we searched through the Development Services Departments dashboard for any newly issued permits for development since 2021 (the current housing cycle). What we learned is not only that the city lags behind at least a year in tracking permitting, we are exceeding our neighborhoods designated housing capacity three years ahead of the close of the housing cycle in 2029.
Read on for a case study in overdevelopment in Greater Golden Hill. It’s the story of one neighborhood, but can be applied across the City.
Greater Golden Hill: A Case Study in Over-Development
In summer 2025, neighbors noticed rapid development but there was no city report on development density. So we did our own.
NOTE: We are working with the City Planning Department to confirm our research and interpretation. Stay tuned for updates.
We began reviewing the DSD dashboard to see how close we are to the RHNA’s capacity of 1,121 new units designated for Greater Golden Hill.
Our review of DSD permitting identified 223 additional units that were not included in the City’s count.
This includes the 114-unit Complete Communities project at 1101 25th.
In October, the City released its 2025 Annual Report on Homes, based on 2021–2024 data. The city reported 576 permits in Greater Golden Hill—lower than what we were observing.
Because the City’s data lags real-time permitting, we counted 2025 permits and found 480 issued.
This figure is not yet City-verified; official 2025 data is forthcoming.
Notably, 2025 alone accounts for 83% of the total units built during 2021–2024.
If permitting continues at half the 2025 pace (240 units/year), Greater Golden Hill will reach ~2,239 units by 2029. At the current 2025 pace (480/year), Greater Golden Hill’s new unit could reach ~3,199—nearly three times its capacity.
That’s largely without any infrastructure improvements to our aging systems.
Greater Golden Hill: A Case Study in Unaffordability
Three Complete Communities projects account for 75% of 2025 permitted units (363 units of 480).
Two developments were approved based on planned rapid transit lines that are not funded and not expected to be built until 2035, if at all.
Over 90% of units are above median income (AMI), significantly increasing higher-income residents while leaving middle- and lower-income levels largely unchanged.
Implications of the City’s Complete Communities Approach
no guaranteed new transit in place to address mobility
increased congestion/decreased pedestrian/bicyclist safety
evacuation routes crowded
no meaningful increase in affordable housing units to those earning at or below the median income
no pathway to home ownership and generational wealth
Our mixed income neighborhood will be forever changed- not to the benefit of current residents , but because the city avoided protecting current residents and allowed over-representation of high income earners.
Mapping Density Development
The map below shows all housing units developed in the GGH planning area since 2021. It includes the planning area boundary, three historic districts, and two safe sleeping sites (total of 767 tents) bordering the neighborhood. Click pins to see unit counts; see the map legend for a color key.
Key: Black-project completed; Red-development underway; Yellow-properties that may be next; Purple-safe sleeping sites; Orange Outline-Greater Golden Hill neighborhood boundary; Light Blue Outline-historic neighborhoods