Research shows structural density as main predictor of LA Fires

A recent article in the Journal of Urban Forestry & Urban Greening demonstrated that the strongest predictor of structure loss was density development. The study examined more than 15,000 structures and nearly 53,000 tree canopies across the two major Los Angeles fire disasters of 2025. Using CAL FIRE damage assessments, building footprint data, LiDAR, satellite imagery, and wind modeling, we evaluated which factors were most strongly associated with structure loss.

The central finding is that structure density and proximity between buildings were the strongest predictors of home destruction in both fires. In contrast, the influence of urban canopy was comparatively small and inconsistent between the two events. That result is important because much of the current public discussion has focused on vegetation removal near homes. Our analysis suggests that in large urban firestorms, once fire enters neighborhoods, structure-to-structure spread plays a larger role than trees in driving losses.